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In several agricultural sectors, India is the world’s leading or one of the largest producers. For example, the country is second largest milk producing country in the world. India ranks second worldwide in farm output. Agriculture and allied sectors like forestry, logging and fishing accounted for 18% of the GDP in 2007, employed 70% of the total workforce and despite a steady decline of its share in the GDP, is still the largest economic sector and plays a significant role in the overall socio-economic development of India. Yields per unit area of all crops have grown since 1950, due to the special emphasis placed on agriculture in the five-year plans and steady improvements in irrigation, technology, application of modern agricultural practices and provision of agricultural credit and subsidies since Green revolution in India. However, international comparisons reveal that the average yield in India is generally 30% to 50% of the highest average yield in the world.
Indian Punjab is called the "Granary of India" or "India's bread-basket. It produces 14% of India's cotton, 20% of India's wheat, and 9% of India's rice.
According to recent studies, the total turnover of Indian food market is approximately Rs.250000 crores (US $ 69.4 billion), out of which, the share of value-added food products is around Rs.80000 crores (US $ 22.2 billion). The Government of India has also sanctioned proposals for joint ventures, foreign collaborations, industrial licenses and 100% export oriented units conceiving of an investment of Rs.19100 crores (US $ 4.80 billion) out of which foreign investment is over Rs. 9100 crores (US $ 18.2 Billion).
The Indian agricultural food industry also assumes significance owing to country's sizable agrarian economy that accounts for over 35% of GDP and employs around 65 % of the population. Both in terms of number of joint- ventures / foreign collaborations and foreign investment, the consumer food segment has the top priority. The other salient features of the Indian agro industry, which have the capacity to lure foreigners with assuring benefits are the aqua culture, deep sea fishing, milk and milk products, meat and poultry segments.
For a long time it has been believed that the effects of global warming on agriculture and food supply is going to be a positive one. This is because the rising level of carbon-dioxide resulted for climate change will help the greeneries for photosynthesis.
Thus there will be a rise of agricultural production and food supply. The theorem received a boost after the evidence of a sharp rise of barley production as one of the effects of temperature increase in Iceland which was quite impossible even few years ago.
But more recent experiments and researches have revealed that the effects of hotter weather on agriculture and food supply are not that good after all. AN UNEP 2001 report on the subject predicted that USA is going to have more droughts, floods, landslides and storms.
Winter will gradually be shortened and sobered down, while summer will rise in expansion and severity. Along with this heavy rain, big storm, heavy snowfall, high sea level, increasing coastal erosion and other problems will occur.
Though as one of the effects of climate change, the overall food supply and production level is supposed to rise in USA, but the Great Plains will suffer with more droughts resulting for these modifications.
Even now many effects of temperature increase on agriculture and food supply have been perceived. The popular maple syrup production of North east USA has diminished by 10%, moving its production zone to farther north for shorter and warmer winter.
On the other hand as one of the effects of global warming the south west USA is suffering from a water shortage which will increase in coming days. The zone has become dry for any standard agricultural production with an apprehension of resettling Dust Bowl of 1930s' by the year 2030 for climate change.
Following a report of IPCC on the weather modification, California's snow covered Sierra Mountains can reduce in near future by up to 60-90%. This will create dire water shortage in summer, making the Central Valley area unsuitable for agricultural production. The State University of Colorado has declared that the area is going to be less productive due to effects of global warming on agriculture and food supply.
Other destructive expected effects include the food supply production in Florida which is going to suffer a lot due to frequent and large scale floods. Also one of the most profitable agricultural products of USA - corn will suffer a bad condition due to dry and hot atmosphere.
As another example of the effects of weather change on agriculture and food supply - with the rise of temperature by 3 to 11 degrees in this century, the production rate of the main crops - the rice, corn, wheat, barley, soybeans and sorghum - will be cut down by 3-5% for each point rise of temperature.
However with all these effects of heat increase on agriculture and food supply, new attempts have been made to adjust the agricultural and food production method according to the changing atmosphere. So to fight the effects of weather alteration, the researchers have established new methods of production with continuous revision of models. But still the best possible process to reduce the effects of global warming on agriculture and food supply is to be established.
This next set of posts will be focusing on policy in the U.S. and how it currently hinders and/or facilitates a shift toward a sustainable agriculture system.
I finally hit the jackpot in Remaking North American Food System edited by C. Claire Hinrichs, et al. While it has become quite apparent that there is no one thing that will shift our current agriculture system to one that is more sustainable, it is clear that there is a disjoint between small, local food systems and translating that into a national system. In the conclusion, the editors discuss how to bridge that gap:
Several states now have established state-level farmers’ market federations. Further, the North American Farmers’ Direct Marketing Association, including Farmers’ Market Coalition, provides education, training, and networking. These organizations are joined by several state and regional associations of CSAs…and efforts to bring together various food policy councils for conferences and workshops. Such groups act in effect as new trade and professional associations for a future food and agricultural system. By organizing in this way, separate local initiatives are better able to follow and potentially influence policy at higher levels. (349)
While local markets are limited in their capacity to cater to the entire population, by means of economics and distribution, collaboration among markets in an entire state or region may be that intermediate step needed in creating a national system. Such a collaboration would need to involve all the stakeholders: local and small farms, large farms, schools, hospitals, grocery stores and other institutions. Yet the major challenge I see lies in the different cultures at work: small, community-based efforts and bureaucratic government. Each has their own set of expectations of how things should be done, in what order, and when. It will be a matter of building bridges between these two cultures and working with each other despite these differences.
Another book I’ve recently read is A Nation of Farmers by Sharon Astyk and Aaron Newton, which discusses less about policy and more about cultural shifts. It ties in nicely with one of my other classes, Economics and the Environment, pointing out that as the U.S.’s GDP increases our happiness level has plateaued or even decreased. In other words, despite the rise in our economic or material wealth, our happiness has not increased proportionately. In essence, when, the authors ask, will we see the value in making less money in order to enjoy ourselves more?! The book’s focus is less on how we go about making change and more on why we need to change and what to do once that shift happens, either forcibly (depletion of resources, embargo, terrorism, massive natural disaster) or willingly. Astyk and Newton seem to expect the former because they go into great detail about how a major national (and thus international) shift may only occur because of something happens, not because we willingly create it; the authors call these “threshold moments”. “At those moments, it is possible to make a larger step forward than could previously have been imagined…” (339) Interestingly enough, this is not a unique perspective. Author Paul Roberts also makes such a remark in his book The End of Food, “it’s hardly surprising to find that many reformers believe real change can come only from outside the system – in the form of some crisis or shock that forces the system to evolve.” (297) But should this negate the efforts being made to change? Our failing national food system is not something we should leave to the possibility of a national or international crisis but rather by making efforts through various realms, in local communities, policy making, or advocating for farmers, food, or public health.
References:
Astyk, S. et al. (2009) A Nation of Farmers. Canada: New Society Publishers.
Hinrichs, C. et al. (2009). Remaking the North American Food System: Strategies for Sustainability (Our Sustainable Future). Lincoln and London: University of Nebraska Press.
Roberts, P. (2009). The End of Food. New York: Houghton Mifflin Company.